Every person is fully aware that in the past week there have been some very bad announcements when it comes to jobs but given that it is a new year January was always going to be a bad month. The big companies were always going to wait until after the holidays to make major announcements. The smaller companies, however, didn’t have the luxury and December saw 16,300 people going onto the live register topping off the highest single year rise on record. A 71% rise in unemployment in 2008.
In order to assess exactly where this country is in terms of unemployment it is worth looking at 2 charts. The first is the number of people on the live register:
The second is the unemployment rate:
Looking simply at the first chart it is clear to see that the amount of people on the dole is shooting up and within the next few weeks it will be at the highest point it has ever been.
Comfort will be taken from the second chart where we can see that as a percentage of the labour force the situation is nowhere near what it has been in the past few decades, at least yet.
Nothing more needs to be said other than keep an eye on these charts through the next few months. They will be the reason behind every other statistic, from house prices through retail sales figures.
Out of the 20 highest ever single-day percentage gains on the Dow Jones two have occured in 2008. The 5th largest percentage gain was on October 13 and the 6th was on October 28, with gains of 11.08 and 10.88 respectively. With the exception of a 10.15% gain in 1988 every other of the highest gains occurred during the great depression.
Out of the 20 highest intraday points swing (difference between day highest and lowest points throughout a day) 16 have occurred in 2008.
Over the past week or so in Ireland there have been plenty of job announcements
[jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs] but even more announcements of redundancies (no links needed).
The association between stock market fluctuations and job fluctuations is risk. Uncertainty in both areas means that some people will take a risk and some will not be willing to take any risks. Governments around the world are trying to sure up banks and industries so that confidence will return and the element of risk will be reduced.
So if you want to know when the recession is over then ask yourself if you would invest in a bank or take a mortgage out for a second home. If the risk is way too high then you’re probably still in a recession.
